Blog by Elina Warsta: What is the future of land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sinks?

The debate on forest harvesting levels in Finland continues. Most EU countries will not meet their 2030 targets for land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sinks, according to estimates published by researchers.

Professor Ilkka Leinonen from Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), emphasized in a recent interview, that climate policy should be based on the reduction of fossil emissions, not on LULUCF carbon sinks, because the sinks of the land use sector are naturally temporary.

For some reason, this message is not reaching public debate. Finland’s forests have acted as carbon sinks since the 1970s – that is, ever since forest growth began to exceed harvesting and the natural removal of trees. These carbon sinks were formed as a result of vigorous forest growth following changes in forest management during the 1950s and 1960s.

Similar dynamics are reported in different parts of Europe. The dominant forest age classes are reaching the age of 60–80 years or older, which means that forest growth is slowing down. In addition, the reduction in the forest sinks due to impacts of climate change is evolving, especially in Central and Southern Europe (as well as North America): the frequency and intensity of storms, droughts, wildfires as well as pest and disease outbreaks are increasing.

Another topic which has not reached public debate is the development of calculation methodology. This may sound very technical, but should be at the core of discussion. To open up the changes between differen methodologies, the Finnish Forest Industries Federation commissioned a study from Natural Resources Institute Finland. This study revealed that 17 million metric tons of CO₂ equivalent of the sink as measured in 2019 disappeared when the methodology was updated to a more advanced one (inventories 2021–2025). To put this in perspective, the original share of Finland’s LULUCF target at EU level is ‑17.8 million tons in 2030.

Despite this information being available, public debate is focused on harvesting levels. If logging is reduced, there will be a short-term increase in carbon sinks – while climate targets should be long-term.

We also know from Norwegian and German studies that reducing forest harvesting in Europe will result in harvesting leakage outside EU borders. In addition, reducing logging would have a major impact on our economy, in a situation where our unemployment rate is already one of the highest in the EU. The suggested cuts of around 12% on the logging levels equal 8,000 jobs and EUR 1.2 billion of value added (as rough estimates).

We can promote forest growth by active, timely forest management, by following the national recommendations for sustainable forest management, by using cultivated seedlings and forest reproduction material, or by fertilization. We should also be rational when considering the future of LULUCF targets in climate policy.